What’s Coming in Q3 2025: The Bounce We’ve Been Waiting For

After five quarters of disruption, all signs now point to a genuine rebound in production - beginning this July. Studios that spent the first half of the year testing the waters are now moving decisively. Crew pipelines are reactivating, vendors are ramping, and the tempo across the board is shifting from cautious to committed.

If you’ve been wondering when the lull finally flips into real work, circle Q3. Our Smart Production Tracker shows production starts are on course to jump 50% over Q2 and 20% over last summer, landing just 15% shy of the all-time high we saw during peak-TV in Q3 2022. That’s a fast, noticeable surge driven mostly by mid- to large-budget episodic seasons (think Netflix and Amazon recommissions) rather than mega-films. Crew calls, stage bookings, and guild filings all point in the same direction: brace for a busy August and September.

This post breaks down how we got here and why this moment matters for every corner of the production ecosystem. If you've been in maintenance mode, it’s time to pivot. Q3 marks the return of real momentum.

If you’ve been wondering when the lull finally flips into real work, circle Q3. Our Smart Production Tracker shows production starts are on course to jump 50 % over Q2 and 20 % over last summer, landing just 15 % shy of the all‑time high we saw in peak‑TV Q3 2022. That’s a fast, noticeable surge, driven mostly by mid‑ to large‑budget episodic seasons (think Netflix and Amazon recommissions) rather than mega‑films. Crew calls, stage bookings and guild filings all say: brace for a busy August and September.

Q2 2025 - The Spring Stretch That Set It Up

The groundwork was laid in Q2. Starts crept 10 % above a flat‑lined Q1, but budgets were still thin, May’s aggregate spend was two‑thirds lower than a year ago. Studios were clearly testing the water, green‑lighting smaller slates while they waited for macro clouds to clear. That cautious uptick kept vendors alive and, more importantly, kept crews warmed up for the bigger push now scheduled for summer.

Q1 2025 - Hitting Rock Bottom

Back in winter the industry felt frozen. Starts fell to roughly half the Q3 2022 pace and sat 10 % below the 2024 holiday quarter. Average budgets slumped to about $11 M a title, the leanest we’ve recorded since the strike hang‑over. Everyone knew we were scraping the barrel, but that low base is exactly what makes the coming rebound feel dramatic.

Why This Matters Right Now

Stages will book out fast; prime crew talent will be back‑ordered; and remote post pipelines (hello, ClearView and Core) will see demand spikes by late August. If you’ve been coasting on maintenance mode, it’s time to switch to growth gears. We’re not quite back to champagne‑level 2022, but after five quarters of famine, Q3 looks like a genuine feast. Grab a plate before the buffet line forms.