"There is no doubt that, for more than 170 million Americans, TikTok offers a distinctive and expansive outlet for expression, means of engagement, and source of community," reads the US Supreme Court’s decision today, upholding a law that will ban the social media app in the States.
Despite recognising these positive values of the platform, this judgement means that Chinese TikTok owners ByteDance would have to sell by this Sunday (January 19th) or be banned from the USA – assuming incoming president Donald Trump implements and enforces the law.
The Supreme Court cites “well-supported national security concerns regarding TikTok’s data collection practices and relationship with a foreign adversary” as the reasoning for its decision.
Influencers, marketers and millions of TikTok users alike have been watching these developments closely over the past few weeks. It’s been a nervy wait to find out whether 2025 is the beginning of – or rather, a return to – a world without the social media giant. Even those outside of the States are already preparing to see their favourite accounts in the US disappear. Whichever way you cut it, there’s about to be a colossal shift for brands and the marketing industry, as a TikTok-sized gap opens up for the taking.
“Social moves at the speed of culture. From Tumblr to Vine to Be Real, we’ve seen how adaptable social audiences are in finding a purpose for social platforms,” says Viren Mistry, head of social at media agency Goodstuff. “The potential TikTok ban in the US, which comes after so much spotlight and political turbulence, has millions of users now asking – where do I go now? TikTok is a platform that educates, entertains and encourages conversation. Whilst nothing will be a like-for-like replacement, eyes are on apps like Instagram, YouTube Shorts and Red Note (ironically, a Chinese app).”
TikTok’s highly specialised algorithm-driven ‘For You Page’ has been an exceptional driver of brand awareness for the companies advertising on the platform, as well as serving as a digital storefront for products via TikTok shop. Influencers and other unpaid UGC can quickly spread the word of a brand on the app, as new trends emerge, explode and eventually die out – usually in rather quick succession.
“The potential TikTok ban is a big reminder that brands don’t actually own their social platforms,” says John Caruso, partner and CCO at M&C Saatchi’s digital marketing and experience design agency, MCD Partners. “Losing TikTok would be a setback – especially as its audience continues to diversify. But it reinforces the need for a diverse channel strategy. For our clients, we’re already directing followers to other platforms to make sure they can stay engaged, which is just good practice no matter what happens.”
He continues, “When it comes to jumping to new platforms like RedNote, we think brands should take their time and make sure any migration is sustainable. Established players like Meta, YouTube, or X already offer TikTok-like features, so brands don’t necessarily need to reinvent the wheel.”
But if platforms as large and widely-used as TikTok can be effectively shut down, far beyond the control of the people who utilise - and even rely on – the platform for its commercial opportunities, can (or should?) brands and their marketing agencies be insulating their social media strategies long before they need to migrate?
“The only constant in our industry is change,” says Mae Karwowski, CEO at Obviously, VML's influencer marketing agency. “The need for diversification in a social media creator strategy is crucial, and it must be balanced with smart strategies on the platforms you decide to invest in. Some questions to ask as a brand: What platforms are my customers active on? How does engagement work on this platform? How will I measure our success on this platform?”
“Brands need to think about why they’re on social media in the first place, and the specific role that each platform plays for them and their audiences,” agrees Viren. “How can you nurture your community and help create a space to have fun and collaborate with them?”
While TikTok has held “undeniable cultural relevance” in the US, explains Colleen Saporito, VP of marketing strategy at GALE, the most resilient brand strategies tend to not be channel-dependent. “They're fueled by audience-driven insights and come to life through interconnected ecosystems across multiple channels.
“There won’t be a one-size-fits all solution for every brand if TikTok is banned,” she adds, “but people will continue to seek elsewhere what made TikTok so great: community, authenticity and entertainment.”
This offering is described by John Gladysz, head of product at independent creative media agency Noble People as “incredible gen z scale”. But he also agrees that it’s not irreplaceable. Reflecting on the lessons from India’s 2020 ban of TikTok, he says, “We predict that traffic and ad dollars will flow to Meta and YouTube and, to a lesser extent, Reddit, X and Snap.”
“We also predict that increased demand for these platforms will accordingly drive CPMs up. We’re encouraging clients to not only lean into high-attention platforms like YouTube, but have strategies in place to shift dollars into audio and non-Meta platforms.”
As a platform-agnostic company, he shares that the goal remains to grow brands faster, regardless of the platforms at their disposal – and even sees some reasons to be optimistic about the ban. “These events are also innovation accelerants and create opportunities for emerging technology. The key is not to be forced into innovation, but to be prepared for it.”
For John at MCD Partners, the biggest takeaway from the Supreme Court’s decision is to be reminded that social platforms are merely “rented spaces” for brands, and are not impervious to the external forces that may affect the companies providing and maintaining them. “Brands need to focus on building first-party data,” he advises. “Things like email lists and CRM systems, so they’re not reliant on any one channel. Flexibility and community building are what help brands handle these disruptions.”
It’s these “agile brands”, affirms Colleen, with social strategies steeped in consumer insight, and which “operate with nimble content creation models”, that will continue to thrive in a post-TikTok world.