Assembly 'Election Outlook' Report: 2024 Cycle Will Be the Most Expensive in History

Global media agency Assembly is projecting a record $12 billion in political advertising spend in the 2024 US Election cycle, with $3B expected in the presidential campaign alone. The estimates come from Assembly’s 2024 Election Outlook report, released today by the agency’s industry-leading Politics and Advocacy Practice, which handles planning, activation, and strategy for some of the most high-profile candidates and independent expenditure groups in the country.  

The report underscores the collision of commercial and political advertising in the 2024 cycle and offers leaders insights into how to prepare. Key takeaways include:  

• $9 Billion Blitz: Advertising spend is projected to hit $9B in down-ballot races, commensurate with the 2022 US midterms, but concentrated in fewer and fiercer state-wide races for Senate, US House, Governor, and other state/local races. 
• Urban Battlegrounds: Consumers in Las Vegas, Reno, and Philadelphia will bear the brunt of the political advertising blitz, ranking among the 'hottest' markets in Assembly’s predictions.   
• Colliding Fronts: Competitive state-wide and house elections will coincide with presidential swing states – meaning the effects of political advertising will be impossible to ignore in certain parts of the country. Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are the battlegrounds to watch. 

“In 2024, consumers are voters and voters are consumers,” says Valerie Davis, North America CEO at Assembly. “In an unprecedented cycle, commercial advertisers will be unable to completely hide from politics and must be well-equipped to respond to the extraordinary amount of political spending and creative that will flood newsfeeds. This report is an excellent resource for politicians and commercial advertisers alike.”  

The 2024 Election Outlook report was developed using Assembly’s proprietary predictive tool, the Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII), to evaluate the level of political saturation in specific markets during the 2024 election cycle, resulting in insights-driven scores for each quarter. The report focuses on both state and federal spending in pivotal swing states such as Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, with analysis of Senate and House races across California and North Carolina.  

Today, Assembly is the only agency that can deliver this capability, as no other media agency can combine the niche expertise of a boutique political firm with the reach and resources of a global omnichannel agency. Since the inception of Assembly’s Politics and Advocacy Practice in 2019, it has spent nearly $1 billion on behalf of candidates and issue groups around the country. Notably, in 2020, Assembly planned and activated the largest political media buy in history for the Mike Bloomberg for President Campaign.  

The 2024 Election Outlook Report and video interviews are available for view and download here.