AA/WARC Report Forecasts UK Ad Growth, but Leaders Question If Creativity Is at Risk

The latest AA/WARC Expenditure Report paints a picture of strength and complexity in the UK ad market. A 10.4% growth in 2024 has pushed total ad spend to £42.6 billion – well ahead of GDP growth – and solidified digital’s dominance, with search, retail media, and online display soaking up the lion’s share of budgets.

But beneath the topline optimism, cracks are beginning to show. Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised amid global uncertainty, while pressure on ROI and growing short-termism threaten the creative risk-taking needed to sustain long-term brand value.

With that in mind, LBB invited a number of strategists, creatives, and agency heads to share their reactions to the report, in order to understand what this digital shift means for storytelling, and how agencies are steering clients toward resilience, relevance, and prioritising brave ideas.

Gideon Adey, client service director at UniLED Software

In offline, ‘real world’ advertising, out-of-home (OOH) takes the crown for being THE growth medium – for a bunch of good reasons. The latest AA/WARC figures demonstrate this further, aligning with Outsmart figures published earlier, but with the ability to make direct comparisons with other UK media channels.

Some 7.7% growth in OOH is above all other media, except for search and online display – which is double the growth in TV. This reinforces OOH's position as a broadcast, high-reach medium, whether deployed for national broadcast, geographically-targeted for local impact, or displayed temporally to reach the right moment behaviourally.

Growth in OOH is set to continue in 2025, even against downgraded targets, and OOH is predicted to continue to outstrip other offline media. Growth continues to be driven by DOOH, which now represents 66% of revenues in the UK OOH sector. After all, digitisation has handed OOH multiple opportunities to further accelerate its evolution and increase its share of ad spend.

The WARC figures show increasing confidence and trust in OOH by advertisers and their agents, but also mirror the confidence investors have in the medium, with a flurry of significant financial investments into UK OOH this year. This shows this medium is not a short-term investment play, with companies like Bauer Media Group, Wildstone, and NPIF committing long-term, high-value investments into the sector.

Added to this is a growing disconnect between media investment and media consumption. WARC shows four out of five pounds are invested online, set against OOH continuing domination of mean exposure hours per day and weekly reach according to the IPA Touchpoints 2024 survey. A savvier investment is OOH/DOOH – a passive medium that delivers ROAS without interrupting or disrupting the consumption of editorial content.

Adam Clarkson​​​​, chief growth officer/founder at Trouble Maker

The numbers tell a pretty clear story – digital dominance was always inevitable, but that doesn’t mean creativity should bow to algorithms. Performance marketing drives efficiency, but brands that tend to win long term balance it with bold, humanistic storytelling. The 10.4% growth proves investment works, but only if it’s strategic. Cutting spend in uncertainty is always a race to the bottom; the real opportunities are realised by smarter, more distinctive work.

Streaming and retail media aren’t just channels, they’re cultural stages. The 2026 FIFA World Cup and VOD boom will demand ideas that resonate, not just convert. We encourage our clients to take creative risks while at the same time, proving value as an absolute priority. Data sharpens the message, but humanity makes it resonate and stick. The future belongs to agencies that blend platform savvy with brand-building ambitions, because growth isn’t just about spend; it’s always been about standing out.

Andrew Barnard, cofounder at 20something

The brand versus performance debate is tired. Brands that rely too much on performance ads often run into a wall of diminishing returns. Those that focus only on brand can struggle to prove results. The real job is finding the right balance between the two based on what the business needs, now and in future.

With most spend now on digital and money being tighter, agencies need to show why strong creative work matters. Investing in brand is not a nice-to-have; it makes performance marketing work better. Clear, memorable ideas help people notice, care and buy. That is true over time, not just in the moment.

Brand and performance are not at odds. They support each other. We need to stop treating them as a trade-off, and start showing how they work together to drive growth. That is how we help clients succeed in a changing market.

John Barton, founder/managing director at Thumbstoppers

The biggest risk right now? Being forgettable.

Brands are still too afraid of rocking the boat. There’s a fear of being criticised or getting it wrong, but a brand that makes the audience feel nothing is far more at risk. In today’s never-ending glut of content, safe work doesn’t just get skipped, it gets swallowed.

We’re seeing the strongest performance from work that takes a stand, sparks a reaction, or dares to divide opinion. It’s important to say, however, it’s not about being reckless, it’s about being memorable. In a market shaped by platforms and algorithms, creative that tries to please everyone ends up pleasing no one.

We’re in a space where ROI is under a microscope, and the irony is that the most effective creative is often the boldest. That means leaning into tension, being culturally relevant, and embracing ideas that aren’t afraid to draw a line. When attention is currency, polarising creative isn’t just brave, it’s essential.

In my humble opinion, legal and finance departments need to loosen the shackles to make this work. This is why we are seeing large agency groups struggle lately versus indies. So much bureaucracy equates a lack of agility.

If brand directors and managers are expected to deliver standout work, they need the freedom from above to take smart, measured risks. One hand feeds the other – creative bravery and commercial performance aren’t opposites, they’re allies.

Rikke Wichmann-Bruun, managing director, dlient service at Cheil UK

We have talked about balancing brand and performance for a good long time now – but are we really doing it? Right now, not enough. Creative risk is shrinking, long-term thinking is rare, and short-term ROI still rules. That has to change. It takes bold leadership – from clients and agencies – to back ideas that move people and deliver results.

The FIFA World Cup in 2026 and VOD growth are huge opportunities. But only if we plan now, and aim higher. It’s time to stop playing safe. Brand building isn’t a luxury; it’s the difference between being noticed and being remembered.

Ed Grice, client strategy managing director at PMG

The UK’s ad market performance in 2024 signals both resilience and reinvention. As digital formats continue to dominate, we’re not seeing the decline of creativity, but the evolution of it. For global marketers, this represents a pivotal opportunity to pair bold, brand-building ideas with the precision and agility that technology helps enable.

Real-time optimisation, cross-market visibility, and platform-native storytelling are no longer nice-to-haves – they’re essential levers for growth. At a time when ROI is under heightened scrutiny, the role of agencies is to guide clients beyond short-termism and toward strategies that scale creatively and commercially.

While 2025 may bring economic headwinds, moments like the 2026 FIFA World Cup offer a powerful canvas for brands to show up meaningfully. Our job is to ensure that great ideas aren’t just seen, but felt, wherever audiences are. That means fusing performance with purpose, data with instinct, and always keeping creativity at the heart of what we do.

Dan Gee, managing director/cofounder at Media Futures Market

It’s not just advertising. The commercial world at large is experiencing a wave of uncertainty, which has led to caution from advertisers. The report shows that advertisers are gravitating toward channels that offer a sense of immediacy in payback. But while the ROI of search and retail media may soothe some anxious boardrooms, they’re often more a distribution tax than a genuine value enhancer. Brands renting access to demand, not building it.

The challenge, as ever, is balance. Brands need to invest not just in what delivers now, but in what compounds over time. Memory, distinctiveness, emotional connection. That’s not an argument against performance, but a reminder that performance works best when it's elevated by a strong brand, not diluting it. Amid economic uncertainty, the prudent choice isn’t to retreat into attribution; it’s to hold your nerve and build something that lasts.

Nina Goli head of digital strategy at Modern Citizens

Digital isn’t just a channel anymore – it’s the whole stage. Platforms, creators, algorithms – they’re shaping how people stumble into brands. But here’s the truth: no matter how much media you throw behind it, if it’s not relevant, it won’t stick.

We’re in the age of fractured funnels and ambient discovery. People are finding brands through TikTok stitches, Discord threads, or a line in a podcast.

That means every asset – not just the hero film – needs to carry meaning. Every moment is a brand moment. Agencies are shifting from campaign thinking to ecosystem design, building modular, idea-led work that travels across formats and fuels both performance and storytelling. The real ROI comes when cultural relevance meets unexpected storytelling. That’s how you break through the scroll.

The big events of 2026? Huge opportunities, but only if brands show up with modern ideas - not one-size-fits-all campaigns, but adaptive, insight-driven thinking that earns attention in the wild, drives participation, and moves people. Platforms distribute. Algorithms optimise. But only modern ideas cut through.

Matt Longley, chief executive officer at Mobsta

This report underlines our industry’s resilience. Yes, growth has been downgraded, but it’s still decent, and that's testament to the consistency and adaptability of digital advertising. Some might see the downgrade negatively, but let’s not forget we’re fortunate enough to work in one of the most creative industries, where brands continue to take risks and get rewarded for them. It’s important to strike the right balance between performance and storytelling, which, when done correctly, allows brands to resonate well and build deeper customer relationships.

In a world shaped by AI, turbulent geopolitics and general uncertainty, we should celebrate our industry’s ability to embrace data and ad tech without losing sight of human insight and storytelling. Done well, this approach ensures short-term metrics don’t overshadow long-term brand equity.

My advice? Don’t panic! We’re lucky to be in a period of sustainable growth, with an exciting future ahead of us.

Lynne Deason, head of creative excellence, UK at Kantar

Brands must pivot from chasing excess share of voice to maximising their effective share of voice (ESOV). A reduction in media budget doesn’t have to spell disaster, but it does mean you need to raise your effectiveness game and ensure hard-fought-for media money is being put behind effective ads that leverage the power of connected creativity. M&S Food's Christmas campaign is a stellar example: despite being outspent, it consistently outshouted competitors through a highly effective and well-laid-down connected campaign and experiences.

During times of crisis, people crave nostalgia for comfort, but they also seek levity and entertainment. Humour fuels creative effectiveness and can be highly appropriate in challenging times. Now is the time for bold creativity, not playing it safe. We love giving people the confidence and evidence to take bolder path, ensuring their multi-channel connected campaigns are effective and optimised.

Dan Appleby, managing director at Drummond Central

News of the UK ad market’s growth is unlikely to provide any comfort to clients who are experiencing turbulence from geopolitical conflict, economic uncertainty, and shifting legislation. With 80% of spend now online, there’s a danger of creative work becoming too safe and performance-led, at the expense of long-term brand building. We have to focus on what our clients and the brands they manage need from us right now. They need us to be robust and responsible in our advice and counsel, and accountable for the work that we make with them.

Now is not the time to panic, be tempted by short-termism, or distracted by new platforms and technology to the detriment of what actually works. The best results still come from standout ideas that cut through, not just clever targeting. As budgets come under pressure, we’re doubling down on keeping distinctive creativity and the principles of brand building front and centre, even as platforms and algorithms shape the landscape. And we need to arm our clients with the tools, data and evidence they need to justify and protect their marketing investment over the coming months.

Ed Palmer, managing director at St Luke's

We should take heart that UK adspend is trouncing wider economic growth. But, under the headline that we’re all still feeling the uncertainty that comes from fluctuating budgets and prolonged decision making.

Growth in VOD should be exciting for those with ambitions in fame-driven brand storytelling. But currently, the experience is not great, with maddeningly high ad frequency and even hyperlocal '80s-style cinema ads creeping in (no, I don’t want to see endless jpeg slideshows of my local David Lloyd gym interrupting mega budget Prime Video dramas).

The most inspiring campaigns right now are the ones that truly harness the potential of each platform they show up in, and bring them all together to construct a compelling, enduring and entertaining story for the brand. Take a bow CeraVe’s wonderfully batshit 'Michael CeraVe', a four-week campaign that was a mashup of conspiracy theory, influencer campaign, Super Bowl blockbuster, PR drive, and sitcom. This, for me, is where things get exciting again.

Matt Lewis president Europe at Momentum Worldwide

If consumers are spending their time engaging in digital formats, then that's exactly where brands should meet them. The key is not to fall into the trap of short-term, attention-seeking ads at the expense of storytelling. While social is often viewed as a place for disposable content for that quick dopamine fix, it should instead be treated as an experience that promotes engagement and has longevity. Take Airbnb's '#LiveThere' campaign, which highlights local experiences and prompts people to share their own travel stories. Or Spotify Wrapped, an evergreen campaign everyone looks forward to and shares each December.

Sohel Aziz, managing director at Accenture Song UKIA

The topline growth masks a deeper shift: ad spend is becoming more digital, more performance-led, and more short term. Brand investment is increasingly squeezed – even as it's more essential than ever. In times of volatility, first-party data and CRM enable precise targeting, but they can’t build emotional relevance on their own. Accenture’s Life Trends 2025 report reveals that 62% of consumers now consider trust a critical factor when choosing to engage with a brand, up from 56% the previous year. This underscores the growing importance of authenticity in brand communications.

As digital channels mature and measurement becomes more granular, agencies must resist the false trade-off between efficiency and creativity. The opportunity ahead, especially with events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup on the horizon, is to help brands show up in culture, not just in feed. True growth will come from return to brand and the end-to-end experience, not just return on spend.

Jono Holt, founder/chief executive officer at Otherway

The idea that you can't build iconic brands in the digital world is increasingly becoming more and more dated. There's a new generation of brands that are growing big and fast, with little or no reliance on the traditional media landscape. This is only going to increase over the next few years.

Brands need to create work that delivers short-term results at the same time as building long-term equity. It's not about risk taking, but just making higher quality work that performs. Brands can no longer afford to make short-term work that might drive sales but negatively impacts their perception and value. The brands prioritising creativity across every touchpoint and media channel will win.

Brands can't let their ROAS lead their decision making either. Every interaction matters, and if you're sacrificing your brand for short term gains, then you're, quite simply, in a race to the bottom.

Finally, brands need to learn how to participate in culture. Making good advertising is just no longer enough. If you can't create work that feels part of the cultural conversation, then it's near impossible to cut through on platforms where people are empowered to simply skip or scroll past your brand and marketing.

Mike Fantis, VP managing partner at DAC UK

The rise of digital-first media reflects two key shifts: brands are prioritising measurable, controllable channels due to budget pressures, and are responding reactively to economic instability. While this can risk sidelining long-term brand equity, the issue lies more in execution than in digital itself. Digital offers unmatched flexibility, enabling dynamic, localised messaging and content tailored to business needs. By aligning media plans with specific objectives, such as e-commerce versus in-store performance, or varying brand perceptions by location, brands can balance short and long-term goals. Not every city needs the same message, and not every channel must be always-on everywhere. When used strategically, digital-first approaches can support both immediate results and lasting brand value.

Jake Thompson, creative director at Spin

The problem isn’t digital. It’s how brands are using it. More channels, more formats, more data, but somehow, less actual original thinking. Social (and digital) has become a sea of safe ideas, filler content, and is optimised to death. Being relevant isn’t about jumping on trends or squeezing everything into a template - it’s about knowing what you stand for and showing up with clarity, timing and in your own way.

At Spin, we talk about relevance because it’s what cuts through. Not just in the moment, but over time. You should be doing performance and brand, but only if you’ve got a strong creative core that holds it all together.

We need more brands willing to commit to something, to give strategy a chance to prove itself right or wrong. Safe work might not get you fired, but it won’t get you remembered.

Chris Ambidge, chief growth officer at Collaborate Global

It’s never good to see a projected budgetary decline. We know from many clients, there’s a ‘wait and see’ policy in place as industry navigates the global tariff chaos and its implications. Digital is an obvious channel to lead the marketing charge through this uncertainty. That said, the post covid-19 sentiment for real life connections continues to grow, even more so as we approach turbulent times. And from an experiential point of view, the Bellwether Report earlier this month highlighted an increase in event budgets, with the highest level of optimism recorded for live events across 2025/2026.

The reality is, as brands look to strengthen connections with consumers – from awareness through to conversion – it’s the combination of these different elements that drives real impact for clients. Experiential events are the new media space in town, driving emotional engagement, brand affinity and ultimately creating shareable opportunities to maximise awareness and build ‘fandom’. Digital is a crucial component of that consumer journey and experience, and the savviest brands weave these all together seamlessly.

Tom White, chief performance officer, EMEA at T&P Group

The growth in the digital share provides a greater opportunity for brands to ensure their broader ROI is delivering optimally, particularly with uncertainty ahead. We have seen many times that those brands that continue spending in uncertain times come out ahead, but with the shift towards digital, more of an advertiser's budget impact on outcomes can be validated through testing than ever before.

Experimentation should be a core lever across all budgets. Even when brands have access to longer-term measurement (such as econometrics), we know consumer habits and channel impacts change over time. As such, a focus on always-on testing means that brands can have greater confidence in where they are investing, and that they are delivering positive revenue outcomes, especially with potential tariff-driven profit margin challenges to come. At the same time, this ensures no-to-low ROI spends are reduced immediately and are redistributed to deliver incremental growth opportunities.

Chris Woodward, executive director, sales at OLIVER

What we are seeing is yes, brands are under pressure because of the economic
client and political uncertainty. No question.

But what are also seeing is brands coming out confidently and owning their future
despite this. We are seeing high demand for GenAI to save both costs AND drive up
effectiveness. Some of this is being taken as savings to the bottom line, but actually,
a decent amount of this spend is being invested back into brand building activity as
no robust business wants to take part in a race to the bottom.

So, tough times, but we are seeing marketers rise to the challenge with innovation
and ambition.