Ride the Black Swan

Image credit: 旺 旺 via Pexels

As the tail lights of 2023 fade into darkness and the un-dipped headlights of 2024 begin to dazzle us anew, it’s time for one of the great traditions of this time of year – the Annual Round of Predictions. I predicted I’d be writing this, so I’m on a roll already.

Let’s take a step back and ask ourselves – are we capable of predicting the future with any degree of certainty? Or even remote accuracy? Well, yes, we can. We can extrapolate trends, which is always fun, and we can understand that certain human behaviours continue unabated however situations change. But can we predict what those changes will be? Slightly trickier.

Change is permanent. The fact that things will change is the only thing that you can predict with certainty. The place, time and degree of those changes is what we try to second guess, often with a distinct lack of accuracy. Generally, world economics are in a poor state, costs are higher than ever before, and our geo-political state is less than stable. But when was that not the case?

The world has been at war somewhere for eternity – of the last 3,400 years, only 268 have been peaceful. But global conflicts have been decreasing in size and frequency for nearly 100 years, so we can predict there will be conflict, but also that it will eventually diminish. Which is of no help to those under fire.

Global economies and the standards of living are increasing year on year over a long term trend, we have some pretty cool AI tech now, and maybe even the holy grail of cold fusion power is in the pipeline. Yay! However, global warming increases at pace and this El Nino year may be the hottest year ever recorded – just like last year was. Boo. Centrist politics are being replaced by extreme opinions, resulting in the polarisation of politics and a consequent bubbling up of anger. We are progressing in so many ways, but the mood music is being played in a minor key.

In a basket of questions asked at the end of 2022, the IPSOS ‘Global Advisor Predictions for 2023’ came up with some interesting foresights. Of 25,000 adults questioned in 36 countries, 22% of people predicted that an asteroid would hit the earth, and 18% were confidently expecting aliens to visit us. 48% were convinced that nuclear weapons would be used, and a whopping 79% said that it was likely that prices would outstrip earnings. 42% of people predicted that people would fly less frequently.

At the time of writing, only one of those things is true, that prices are outstripping wages, but overall, 65% of respondents thought that 2023 would be better for them than 2022. They were probably right, but it just doesn’t feel that way some days.

So. Let’s predict some good things, because that’s more fun.

1. AI technology will start to have a real positive impact on our lives, leading to an immediate and global 26% increase in the happiness quotient.

2. Economies, spurred on by scientific excellence, will release brave new technologies that start to make a difference in the fight against global warming.

3. Post-pandemic international coordination for resource allocation hits new levels of efficiency, helping several nations avoid the longer term negative impacts of the natural disasters that are bound to befall us.

4. Voters around the world, happier with the status quo, elect more moderate politicians who reinvigorate united global bodies, leading to pressure on warmongers and dictators who subsequently back off from their bellicose courses.

5. The British Summer will be pleasantly warm with occasional prosecco and those little sandwiches.

And that will be 2024, one of the greatest, most peaceful and inspiring years in living memory. A combination of the Summer of Love, the White Heat of Technology, and the roaring twenties reimagined, a glorious, carefree glide into a golden future.

Unless.

Unless we see a Black Swan. An unpredictable event beyond normal expectations with potentially severe consequences, an event characterised by extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence it was obvious in hindsight. Like 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, or Leicester City winning the Premiership.

Spotting a white swan is easy. If it’s white swans all the way, we should be good for another year. But if those black swans start popping up, with their graceful necks and a knack for improbability, then we may have to start learning Klingon. But that’s the trouble with black swan events – you just don’t know (until you know).

Basing predictions on past performance is all well and good, but does not take into account the unpredicted or the unknown. Like the turkeys who have been raised and cared for all year round by their beneficent human farmers. Fed, housed, watered, one could forgive these birds for thinking that their ship had come in, that they were living their best lives: #BFF #instamagic #livinglife

Then, all of a sudden, it’s ‘Happy Christmas’ and mayhem in the hen house as the future takes a decidedly dark turn for the turkeys. But we’re not turkeys, are we? We’re self-sufficient, intelligent and well informed humans who know a thing or two about life.

2024? It’s going to be a great year. Maybe one of the best ever, full of peace, love, and understanding. Just don’t be a turkey.

Happy New Year!