IPA Bellwether Reveals UK Marketing Budget Growth Hits Decade High

UK companies upwardly revised their marketing budgets at the strongest rate in over a decade, and to the second highest level in almost a quarter of a century, according to the Q2 2024 IPA Bellwether Report published today (18th July 2024).

Rising from +9.4% in Q1 to +15.9% in Q2, the net balance of UK businesses that expanded their total marketing budgets was at its highest level since the first quarter of 2014 (when it measured +20.4%), This also marks the second highest upward revision in the survey’s almost 25-year history. Additionally, the net balance has registered in positive territory in each of the past 13 quarters, signalling a sustained period of growth in UK marketing spend. While 14.0% of respondents reported budget cuts in the second quarter, this was half the proportion recording expenditure growth (29.9%).

Growth by category in Q2 2024

Events continued to be the best-performing mode of marketing from a budgeting perspective, with another robust quarterly expansion during the latest survey period (net balance of +17.2%, from +23.1%), showing a still-strong appetite for in-person interactions with clients and prospects.

Direct marketing was also an area which continued to flourish, with budgets for this category increasing for a sixth successive quarter. The net balance of firms reporting upward revisions (+8.9%) also rose on the quarter (+7.0% previously).

Encouragingly, main media budgets, which include spending allocated for big-ticket advertising campaigns broadcasted on television and radio, returned to growth after a marginal reduction in Q1. The net balance of companies recording upward budget revisions was +3.5%, up from -0.7% previously. Granular data revealed the expansion here was driven by other online (net balance of +15.3%, from +7.1%) and video (net balance of +7.8%, from +0.8%), as the remaining monitored categories either stagnated (out of home recorded a 0.0% net balance) or contracted. Indeed, audio (net balance of -5.5%, from -4.5%) and published brands (net balance of -6.3%, from -5.7%) registered slightly stronger decreases.

Elsewhere, sales promotions saw the third-strongest expansion in budgets, with the net balance of firms posting growth rising from +4.9% to +6.9%, a one-year high. Upward revisions to market research (net balance of +3.2%, from +1.4%) and PR (net balance of +2.6%, from +0.6%) rounded off a quarter of broad-based strength in marketing, as the 'other' category – which accounts for any other method of marketing not included – was the only part of the survey to register in contraction (net balance of -7.6%, from -4.3%).

Company-own financial prospects at strongest since Q3 2021

Bellwether companies are asked about their sentiment towards the financial outlook for their own company and wider industry in each quarter. In the three months to June, surveyed companies showed further improvements, particularly with regards to their own business outlook.

While the proportion of companies that were more optimistic towards financial prospects at their own company remaining broadly unchanged since the first quarter at 29.0%, negative sentiment fell, with 15.4% expressing pessimism (compared to 19.5% previously). As a result, the respective net balance increased to +13.6%, its highest level since Q3 2021 and therefore signalling the greatest degree of confidence towards company-own financial prospects in almost three years.

The negative trend towards overall industry financial prospects persisted in the second quarter of 2024, although back-to-back improvements were registered as the level of pessimism fell again. While one-fifth (20.1%) of the Bellwether panel noted a downbeat forecast, 16% were optimistic towards the financial outlook of their industry. The subsequent net balance of -4.1% was the least negative since the opening quarter of 2022.

Adspend forecast revised higher for 2024

So far in 2024, the condition of the UK economy has vastly improved, with a strong rate of expansion in GDP seen in the first quarter likely to be followed up with further growth in the three months to June. Indeed, S&P Global Market Intelligence's GDP forecast for 2024 has improved noticeably since the last Bellwether Report, with annual growth of 0.6% anticipated, up from 0.2%.

That said, while the mild recession experienced at the end of last year may have ended, recovery headwinds persist. Elevated borrowing costs, dwindling government financial support and persistently high food and energy prices are a few risks which continue to dampen the economy and particularly household finances. As such, the Bellwether is still expecting to see some caution from businesses, and S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipates adspend (in real terms) to flatline in 2024 when compared with last year. However, this does mark an improvement from the forecast in the first quarter, when adspend was predicted to contract by an annual rate of 0.5%.

As for 2025 onwards, the outlooks for both the UK economy and adspend are much more upbeat. Interest rates are expected to fall a few times this year, while inflation is also set to cool further. S&P Global Market Intelligence has adspend growth forecasts of 1.2%, 1.7% and 1.9% for 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Paul Bainsfair, IPA director general said, “In line with the brightening economy, decreasing levels of inflation and a new Government, this quarter’s Bellwether Report reveals real vim and vigour regarding UK companies’ marketing spend intentions. As we know, advertising is a lever for growth for companies and so it is great to see them capitalising on these developments.

“While we welcome this positivity, it is worth noting that while inflation levels have come down, this hasn’t yet translated into prices, and as such strains on many household finances prevail. This is something we’ve seen in our recently launched 2024 IPA TouchPoints data where more than a third of consumers say they are struggling to cope on their current income. Companies would benefit from being cognisant of this in terms of their communications approach and messaging to their consumers. I suspect that those brands that can bestow their sense of value, trust and reward will fare well here.”

Joe Hayes, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence and author of the Bellwether Report said, "While a general election carries the potential to generate a lot of uncertainty and decision-making paralysis in its lead up, it seems that UK companies in the Bellwether survey largely shrugged it off as a factor to consider when assessing their marketing budgets in the second quarter as growth jumped to a ten-year high. A strong performance by the UK economy so far this year, in tandem with falling inflation and the expectation of an imminent interest rate reduction by the Bank of England, has helped lift confidence, providing more fertile grounds for companies who wish to invest into their brands and position themselves for long-term growth.”

Gill Jarvie, client services director, Republic of Media and IPA chair for Scotland said,“There is a general air of optimism with the UK economy returning to growth and a new government installed so it was reassuring to see the latest Bellwether figures also going in the right direction. Even more reassuring was the return to growth for Main Media budgets (+3.5%) having seen a reduction in Q1. Hopefully we’ll see this momentum continue into Q3.”

Richard Aldiss, IPA chair for England and Wales said, “It's great to see not only a continuation but also a strengthening of the optimism we observed in Q1’s Bellwether Report. The upturn in main media advertising budgets is particularly encouraging. While uncertainty undoubtedly remains, brands and marketeers are gaining confidence from economic and market indicators, rightly viewing this as an opportunity to invest for growth.”

Alex Uprichard, managing director, IMA-HOME and IPA city head for Leeds, Yorkshire and Humberside said, “Who wouldn’t be positive about the news that UK businesses expanding their marketing budgets has risen by the highest level in a decade to +15.9% in Q2?

“There was every chance political uncertainty would stagnate investment decisions, but the winds of change have clearly driven more optimistic budgeting. The continued growth of events budgets indicates that real world experience is driving strong results for Bellwether companies. We’re witnessing it first hand as an agency, creating retail activations day-in-day-out for existing and new clients.

“Main advertising budgets experiencing growth is another positive indicator as we look towards planning season. We’re moving from reactionary short termism as the economic landscape starts to stabilise and are more able to work with our clients on long term objectives, which not only future proofs brands but the industry at large. So let’s keep going in this direction!”

Sue Benson, managing director, The Behaviours Agency and IPA City Head for Manchester & North West said, “Despite England not winning the Euros, we did get growth and positivity in the pages of the IPA Bellwether. It finally appears as if we’ve turned a corner economically and I know that my colleagues in the North West will really hope that that translates into more positive trading conditions for the next six months. Short-term activation media - DM and events - are still driving the growth, but at least we’re seeing growth in main media usually associated with brand investment. With the Paris Olympics set to bring joy to our lives and talk of interest rates cuts, I think we can begin to work with a more optimistic and confident consumer.”

Bill Doris, VP analytics, EMEA, EssenceMediacom and IPA media research advisory group chair said, “The latest IPA Bellwether Report for Q2 2024 brings some good news for the market research sector. Budgets have seen a nice bump, with a net balance of +3.2%, the best we've seen since late 2021. This is a refreshing change from the previous quarters. Even with some political uncertainties, UK companies have been feeling upbeat thanks to a stronger economy, lower inflation, and the hope of interest rate cuts. While market research isn't seeing the biggest budget increases compared to other areas, it's clear that businesses value the Insight it provides. Fingers crossed this positive trend continues into H2 24.”