Precession: The Most Confusing Economy Is the One That Hasn’t Crashed Yet

Image credit: ActionVance via Unsplash​

There’s a strange phase in every economic cycle that doesn’t get talked about enough. It’s not the boom. It’s not the bust. It’s the in-between. The warning lights are flashing, but nothing’s officially broken. Unemployment is still low. People are still spending – sort of. But confidence is shaky and you can feel the pullback coming.

This is what we’re calling “precession”: the period before a recession (or the perception we’re in a period before a recession) when marketers are stuck in limbo, forced to make calls with half-signals and contradictory data. And for most marketers, it’s the most frustrating time to do our jobs.

In a true recession, the rules change but the game is clear: Focus on value, de-risk the brand, find marketing efficiencies.

In a boom, it’s all offense. Innovation, bold bets, big spend.

But precession? You’re stuck in the middle.

Emotions are heightened. Your CFO is getting nervous. Your consumer is getting cautious. You watch the stock market all day for trends and are too scared to log in and see what’s up with your 401(k).

But no one wants to be the first to blink. So, you’re left in the most paralyzing position possible – forced to act decisively in an indecisive market.

It’s a time when performance marketing starts underdelivering, brand budgets are questioned and every forecast is built on sand. There’s no clear path forward – just the fog of hesitation.

In times of uncertainty, the default instinct is to play it safe. Cut top of funnel. Cancel long-lead projects. Push everything into performance and hope for some short-term gains. But that’s exactly the trap.

Because when precession gives way to recession, the brands that already disappeared from consumers’ minds are the ones that suffer the most. And the ones that stay relevant – stay seen, stay useful – come out stronger on the other side.

We saw this in 2020 – brands like Clorox and P&G leaned into relevance, not retreat. In 2008, Mercedes stayed true to their image, focusing on technology and heritage while competitors screamed “DEAL!” During the 2001 dotcom bust, Apple didn’t cut brand spend – it launched the iPod and doubled down on “Think different.”

Those weren’t moves made during a recession. They were made in the murky run-up to it – when it was easier to hide than to lead.

There’s no silver bullet. But there are some principles from which we can draw inspiration… or at least give us pause before making knee-jerk reactions.

Don’t freeze. Flex. Your message might need to shift, but going dark or chasing only bottom-funnel metrics is the fastest way to get forgotten.
Shift from hype to help. When consumers feel anxious, show usefulness. Give them tools, ideas or ways to get more from what they already have.
Invest in mental availability. They might not buy today but if they don’t remember you tomorrow, someone else wins when the rebound comes.
Watch for cultural cues, not just economic ones. When people start cooking more at home, going out less or searching differently, your message needs to meet that mood. Look at Google trends before GDP stats.
Scenario-plan your spend. Build three budgets: if nothing changes, if things tighten and if things tank. Don’t wait to adjust – be ready to reallocate on a dime.

Precession is where brand leaders earn their stripes. It’s not about having the perfect plan – it’s about having the guts to keep showing up, the flexibility to pivot quickly and the wisdom to know that relevance isn't something you switch off and on.

So, when your team says, “Are we sure we should launch this right now?” the answer might be, “We can’t afford not to.”

Because if you're waiting for clarity, you're already behind.