How Brands Can Embrace Uncertainty and Create Opportunity in an Economic Downturn

Is America heading for a recession? The answer depends on who you ask, but for us, the answer leans quite heavily toward a 'yes.' Why? Because if every chief marketing officer put together a top-five list of concerns, “recession” would be on many of those lists right now.

For many of our clients, tariffs and trade wars loom large. If their product inventory and sales margins aren’t directly impacted by rising import taxes, they’re anticipating the effects of consumer uncertainties and recession-like buying behaviours. If you pan out beyond what we’ve observed in our day-to-day interactions with clients and their company’s targeted consumers, general polling substantiates where the minds of many can be found: Four in 10 Americans say the US is in a recession, according to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll.

And that ratio is enough to influence consumer trends in unwanted ways.

“I’ve been through two recessions here at Lewis and, now, possibly a third,” said Jennifer Carter, vice president of channel engagement. Carter, a comparatively young ad executive to have experienced three notable economic declines, weathered the housing market crash and subsequent Great Recession in 2008, the US economy’s response to a global pandemic in 2020 and, finally, tariffs and trade wars in 2025.

Yet, as history affirms, three recessions in 17 years is actually right on time. In the era of modern capitalism, or roughly since World War II, significant declines in economic activity tend to occur every five to seven years. So for any company facing a market downturn, the cliché rings true: It’s not a matter of if, but when.

“With each of these experiences, you’re problem-solving around less-than-ideal economic trends, but you begin to recognise consistencies within the chaos,” said Jennifer.

She said the conversations and problems are varied, and each represents situations unique to specific market downturns and industries. But what Carter and her colleagues have observed over and over again is how often there are common through lines across every industry and every economic downturn.

​Read on to learn how to drive growth during a recession.